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An Analytic Tool for Constructing and Evaluating Testing Strategies for COVID-19

Richard E. Kouri, Donald P, Warsing JR, Nikhil John Singh, Beena Thomas, Robert B. Handfield

This paper describes the utilization of a mathematical modeling tool for evaluating alternative testing cadences for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that are applicable to any well-contained congregate setting. These settings include long-term care facilities, and public-school systems.

Variables analyzed include population sizes, contagion factor, and unique testing objectives that congregate settings might have (e.g., differing susceptibilities, or varying underlying health conditions). The tool helps evaluate cost vs benefit for a range of testing cadences (e.g., daily, every 2 days, every 3 days, every week, every 2 weeks, every 3 weeks, and every 4 weeks) based on use of a commercially available antigen testing kit that costs $5 per test.

Our method allows public health officials, site managers and/or on-site healthcare workers to generate effective testing plans that align with available resources and support fact-based decision making. We also discuss how this tool can work with vaccine roll-out both in the United States and elsewhere.