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Development of an Algorithm for Calculating the Risk of Terrorist-CBRN

Bolduc DL, Marr J, King J and Dudley R

In order to avert a disaster from a terrorist chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attack, it is important to study the likelihood of terrorists using CBRN weapons. This study reports on the development of an algorithm for calculating the ‘risk’ of a terrorist seeking CBRN weaponry with 67.3 percent prediction accuracy. The algorithm was developed through four phases, Phase I proposed independent variables likely associated with Terrorist-CBRN (T-CBRN) derived from our interpretation of the literature; Phase II involved constructing a ‘Random Nations Matrix’ from 74 countries or locations of the world selected at random, for correlating the proposed independent variables; Phase III entailed the construction of a multivariate model from the independent variables which met our correlation criteria with T-CBRN; and finally in Phase IV, an algorithm was derived from the model design for calculating the risk of a terrorist seeking, acquiring and or using a CB