地球科学と気候変動ジャーナル

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Drought Assessment Based on Multi-Model Precipitation Projections for the Island of Crete

A.-E. K. Vrochidou, M. G. Grillakis and I. K. Tsanis

Drought assessment and projection for the island of Crete was carried out with the aid of thirteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) output (precipitation), bias corrected, using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A comparison throughout three future time slices reveals a significant decreasing precipitation trend and temperature rise. The Spatially Normalized–Standardized Precipitation Index (SN-SPI) was calculated in order to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of droughts by classifying the stations in terms of severely and extremely dry conditions as a time percentage. Intensification of drought events is projected for the central and eastern part of the island during the last future period under study (2065-2099) under RCP8.5. The above findings should be taken into consideration for future strategy planning for drought management and warning systems development.