環境汚染と気候変動

抽象的な

Assessing Vulnerability of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Variability for Enhanced Adaptive Capacity and Resilience in Karonga District, Malawi

Chakufwa Kaulanda Munthali, Victor Kasuli, Mavuto Tembo

This study covers a comprehensive undertaking in order to determine vulnerability to climate variability of smallholder farmers in Karonga District according to gender of the household head, in selected Traditional Authorities (TA) and Group village headmen (GVH) areas. The study aimed to unravel vulnerability in its totality but wrapped in four specific objectives: to determine biophysical, socio-economic and composite vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and to examine adaptation mechanisms employed in the study area. Mixed methods were used in order to exploit both quantitative and qualitative data and stratified random sampling was employed. Data was collected through face to face interviews, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Semi structured questionnaires were used for collecting information. Data analysis was done using SPSS and excel. A total of 39 indicators taken from literature and observations in the study area were loaded and analyzed in SPSS. In order to reduce the dimension of the indicators and thus generate vulnerability indices, principal component analysis was used with varimax rotation and using the Kaizser criterion (Eigen value >1). In all the analyses both the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test and the Bartlett’s test requirements were fully satisfied before proceeding with dimension reduction. Positive (+) values showed increased vulnerability, while negative (-) values showed reduced vulnerability. The magnitude of vulnerability was determined based on the index’s proximity to zero (0) or 1. Results for objectives 1, 2 and 3 indicate that female headed households are highly vulnerable to climate variability while male headed households have reduced vulnerability to climate variability. In terms of the area, GVH Mwaulambo area is the most vulnerable (1.90240) to climate variability, while GVH Mwenitete is the least vulnerable among the six sampled GVHs. Socioeconomically, GVH Mwangulukulu is very highly vulnerable (3.18534) and GVH Zindi is the least vulnerable. The study therefore concludes that, indeed, Karonga District is vulnerable to climate variability effect. However, we also acknowledge through the findings show that the vulnerability levels differ depending on gender as well as the area (specifically, group village head areas). On adaptation, the study reveals that smallholder farmers have low adaptive capacity. The study therefore recommends that interventions to either prevent vulnerability or address post disaster challenges need to factor in the element of gender and locality in which smallholder farmers are. Special emphasis needs to be given to female headed households as they have shown very high vulnerability levels both biophysically and socio-economically as compared to male headed households.