環境汚染と気候変動

抽象的な

Hydrological Extremes and their Association with ENSO Phases in Ethiopia

Abu Tolcha Gari

Ethiopia is a rain-fed agriculture country, which is subjected to high climate variability in space and time, leading to hydrological extremes causing loss of life and property more frequently. Droughts are more common and sometimes floods are experienced in various parts of the country. Being a tropical country, the inter-annual climate variability in Ethiopia is dominated by ENSO (ElNino and Southern Oscillation).

In this study, an attempt has been made to determine the occurrence of droughts and floods on monthly basis, by calculating the monthly SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) using the available rainfall data during (1975-2005) at selected 26 stations that spread across the country.

Based on the monthly SPI values computed, the droughts and floods of different intensities; extreme, severe and dry have been determined for all stations. The frequencies of the droughts and floods on the monthly scale during the two rainy seasons, Belg (Feb-May) and Kiremt (Jun-Sep) seasons have been determined. For instance, during Belg season, there were 11 extremes (SPI < -2.0) droughts at Nazreth, 10 severe (SPI between -1.99 and -1.50) droughts at Diredawa and 14 moderate (SPI between -1.49 and -1.00) droughts at Kulumsa. The total number of droughts of all intensities over the study period is also highest (22) at Kulumsa and lowest (8) at Mekelle. Moreover, at Kulumsa both the numbers of droughts (22) and floods (22) during Belg are more, which shows that the rainfall variability is the highest at this station.

The association of the hydrological extremes during the two rainy seasons, belg and kiremt with the ENSO phases has also been examined, which forms a basis for the prediction of the occurrence of droughts (dry conditions) and floods (wet conditions) at individual station using ENSO phases.